Jack Cushman / Apps / Compute Substrate Estimator
AI compute by jurisdiction / Monte Carlo estimate
How much AI compute can the US switch off?
The world's AI accelerators fall into buckets that decide who controls them: US soil or US-run clouds, allied facilities that still depend on US export permission, China, and sovereign non-China capacity. This tool estimates exaFLOPs of installed AI accellerator capacity in each bucket, using a simple statistical model fed from available public information and known gaps.
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ZFLOP/s global
90% interval
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Controllability
By who can switch it off
If the US government blocks a US-origin lab, only the amber slice is plausibly reachable.
US soil / US cloud: US can block
Allied soil, US-export-controlled chips: US can still block
Sovereign, non-China: reachable
Exists, but off-limits to a US lab
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Physical location